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Not long ago, retail theft was dominating headlines. Chains from Walgreens to Target raised alarms about an unprecedented wave of shoplifting, sparking political debates and viral videos of brazen thefts.
But two years later, the picture looks very different. Retailers and law enforcement say new security measures and tougher laws are driving down theft rates. According to the Council on Criminal Justice, shoplifting reports fell an average of 12% nationwide in the first half of 2025 compared to last year.
In New York, retail theft dropped 12% in the city and 5% statewide. Governor Kathy Hochul credited a $40 million investment in task forces and new laws that make it easier to file felony charges for repeat offenders. “The numbers are excellent,” said Christopher Herrmann, a John Jay College professor. “This is a really good trend.”
Retailers also report progress. Walmart, Target, and Home Depot all say their shrink rates — the percentage of inventory lost to theft and other causes — are improving. Home Depot even helped crack its largest retail theft case ever in Southern California, involving 14 suspects linked to hundreds of thefts.
Part of the change stems from better accounting of merchandise. After the pandemic disrupted inventories, retailers initially overstated their losses. Now, they say clearer data and tighter security are working together to reduce shrink.
Public policy has played a role, too. More than 80 new state laws have passed since 2021 targeting organized retail crime. At the federal level, the Inform Consumers Act requires online marketplaces to verify third-party sellers, making it harder to resell stolen goods.
Despite the progress, experts caution that punishment alone doesn’t deter crime as effectively as the likelihood of being caught. Still, closer coordination between stores and law enforcement appears to be making a measurable impact.
The industry continues to push for national legislation to create a federal task force, arguing organized retail crime often crosses state lines. But for now, the so-called “shoplifting crisis” looks less like a tidal wave and more like a problem being brought under control.
